Re/Max First Time Buyer Report

First-time buyers in major Canadian markets move to get in ahead of higher interest rates, says RE/MAX

Driven by the threat of higher interest rates down the road, first-time buyers are contributing to strong upward momentum in residential housing markets across the country, according to a report released by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX First-Time Buyers Report, highlighting trends and developments in nineteen major Canadian centres, found that low interest rates and balanced market conditions have provided significant impetus in 2011, particularly at lower price points. Just over 30 per cent of markets are reporting sales in excess of 2010 levels as a result, while almost 70 per cent have experienced an upswing in average price. Leading the country in terms of percentage increases in the number of homes sold are Western Canadian markets, including Saskatoon (up close to 15 per cent), Greater Vancouver (up close to 12 per cent), and Winnipeg (up just over 11 per cent). With an average price hike of close to 20 per cent year-to-date (February), Greater Vancouver continues to show unprecedented strength, followed by Hamilton-Burlington (eight per cent), Quebec City (seven per cent), Winnipeg (close to seven per cent), Greater Toronto (five per cent), and Greater Montreal (five per cent).

Despite homeownership rates approaching 70 per cent, there is clearly room for growth as entry-level buyers make their moves from coast-to-coast, undeterred by higher housing values and changes to lending criteria. Many purchasers intent on realizing homeownership are scaling back on expectations or are willing to sacrifice location, quality and/or size to make their dream a reality – not unlike generations before them.

Inventory levels, while tight in several larger centres, are more balanced overall, giving first-time buyers a good selection of housing product from which to choose. Not surprisingly, condominium apartments and town homes have become the first step for many entry-level purchasers, especially in Greater Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, London-St. Thomas, Hamilton-Burlington, Greater Toronto, the Island of Montreal, and Halifax-Dartmouth where average prices have risen unabated in recent years.

With the Canadian economy on firmer footing overall, residential real estate is well-positioned moving into the traditionally busy spring market. Consumer confidence is climbing in conjunction with economic performance, and concerns over a secondary recession fade with each passing day. The mood is cautiously optimistic, as first-time buyers enter the market.

Changes to recent financing criteria have not created the anticipated run up in activity in most markets. From a financial standpoint, most rookie home buyers remain quite prudent. Those making the leap are not doing it lightly, buying within their means. While this most recent round of policy tightening will likely have a negligible effect on demand, the message is getting across.

Affordability remains a growing concern in most markets, and—aside from first-time purchasers—no one is more in tune with that than housing planners and developers. In fact, the growing demand for reasonably-priced product is creating a shift in the country’s housing mix. That trend is expected to gain traction in coming years, as builders look to create greater options for those seeking to realize homeownership. In recent years, builders have helped ease the move to homeownership by concentrating on intensification—condominium buildings with smaller suites and small-lot subdivisions offering detached, compact homes at a fraction of the cost of a traditional single-family home. On the flip side, the affordability factor is also breathing new life into tired older neighbourhoods, and that, in turn, is contributing to rising values.

As prices escalate, first-time buyers are indeed spending more—some out of necessity, but others are simply in a position to do so. Unlike in years past—a greater percentage of today’s first-time buyer pool is comprised of dual-income, college or university-educated couples with solid earnings. They’re spending close to average price or slightly more to secure—in most cases—a better location or a home that will grow with them. Yet, the fact remains that those on a tighter budget can get in for considerably less, with reasonable choices in every major market across the country. While some may feel discouraged by eroding affordability levels, the underlying confidence in the concept of homeownership is rising.

While market conditions are one thing that influences first-time buyers, few things trump the fundamental belief in homeownership. Today’s entry-level buyers are steadfast in their mindset. They know they have to live somewhere, but they simply don’t want to pay someone else’s mortgage. Savvy or practical, they remain a driving force. The bottom line is that the demand for entry-level product will remain steady. The role of starter homes in the marketplace is becoming ever more vital.

Download the Full Report here: http://bit.ly/hvEAji

 

'Wild card' props up Canadian housing markets

over past decade

 

Inventory remains key to stability in 2011

 

 

Tighter inventory levels helped to make the last decade one of the healthiest periods on record for Canadian real estate, insulating markets in major centres from the peaks and valleys characteristic of past decades, according to a report released by RE/MAX.

 

The RE/MAX Housing Barometer Report measured monthly sales-to-new listings ratios in 18 major centres across the country from January 2000 to December 2010.  The report found strong seller's/balanced conditions prevailed for much of the time frame, prompting significant gains in housing values.   The lone exception was when the market dipped into buyer's territory during the latter half of 2008 and early 2009.  However, fewer listings served to offset diminished demand and provided greater stability.Average price increases from 2000 to 2010 ranged from an annually compounded rate of return of 4.82 per cent in London-St. Thomas to a high of 9.56 per cent in Regina. The national average was 6.82 per cent.  By far the tightest market in the nation was Winnipeg, where seller's ruled the roost for 85 per cent of the decade, followed by Hamilton-Burlington (67 per cent), Regina (63.6 per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo (59.8 per cent) and Edmonton (57.5 per cent).

 

Housing markets have been remarkably hearty over the past decade and the stage is set for a better than expected 2011.  Inventory has proven to be an effective form of market self-regulation, providing both an ideal climate for price escalation and a shelter in periods of softer home-buying activity.  As a number of city centres are already reporting stronger than usual activity out of the gate, it's clear supply will continue to be the wild card in 2011.

 

First-time buyers comprise the vast majority of purchasers, with move-upbuyers in close pursuit.  Demand and supply are on relatively even keel at present in most areas, but the traditionally busy spring season is expected tokeep the market at a perfect equilibrium in the days and months ahead.  However, there may be some exceptions to the rule.  The country's largest markets—Greater Toronto, Greater Montreal, and Greater Vancouver—are expected to head into the second quarter with fewer listings overall.  Two centres—Newfoundland & Labrador and Kelowna—are still firmly entrenched in buyer's markets.

 

An improved global economic picture, lower unemployment rates and rising consumer confidence levels have buoyed home buying activity since November.  While sales figures are expected to be slightly off 2010's heated pace, housing values are forecast to continue to climb in Canadian real estate markets in 2011—with most a direct result of lower listing levels.

 

Western Canada experienced some of the highest rates of return for real estate over the 11-year period.  While values in Regina posted the greatest percentage increase (9.56 per cent), Edmonton, (9.25 per cent), Saskatoon (9.2 per cent), Winnipeg (9.01 per cent), Kelowna (8.42 per cent), Greater Vancouver (7.8 per cent), Calgary (7.7 per cent) and Victoria (7.59 per cent) all outperformed the national average.  

 

Equally strong gains were posted in Quebec.  While solid balanced market conditions prevailed for much of the decade, housing values in Quebec City and Montreal rose 9.2 and 8.48 per cent respectively on an annually compounded basis.

 

Increases were more moderate in Ontario and Atlantic Canada—with the exception of Newfoundland & Labrador, where values escalated 8.14 per cent on average.  Ottawa led in terms of price appreciation in Ontario at 6.78 per cent, followed by Hamilton-Burlington at six per cent, Kitchener-Waterloo at 5.69 per cent, the Greater Toronto Area at 5.35 per cent, and London-St. Thomas at 4.82 per cent.  

 

There's no question that price growth has been solid over the past decade, but history tells us that exceptional growth supported by sound fundamentals is healthy.  Concern is only raised when the underpinnings are insufficient to justify the trajectory.  By all accounts, Canada's real estate market measures up to conventional wisdom and the faith in homeownership has not been misplaced.

 

While the statistics are impressive, they alone cannot tell the tale.  The gains realized over the past decade speak to the tremendous resiliency of the Canadian residential housing market.  Considering catastrophic events, both natural and manmade, that occurred throughout the period—SARS, forest fires, ice storms, 9/11, a recession—the performance of the real estate sectorproved that much more significant.  It remained a consistent bright spot supporting economic growth and ancillary spending, and subsequently helped lead the nation out of the greatest downturn in recent memory—its hardy nature heightening its appeal as a long-term investment.

Brantford Real Estate Update

Sales activity continues to cool in July

Home sales recorded through the MLS System of the Brantford Regional Real Estate Association were down in July 2010 from the near-record levels reported in the same month last year. A slowdown in demand in Ontario had been widely expected in July, with many purchases having been brought forward into the first half of the year in advance of the introduction of the HST.

According to statistics provided by the Association, residential sales totalled 172 units in July 2010. This stands 17 per cent below levels in July 2009, when activity came close to setting a record for the month. Some 1,317 homes have traded hands in the first seven months of 2010. This remains 15 per cent above levels reported in the same period last year.

The introduction of the HST was the last in a string of temporary factors that have resulted in considerable volatility in the market over the past two years, said Daniel Marchuk, President of the Brantford Regional Real Estate Association. Sales have come down markedly from record levels at the beginning of the year, but with these temporary factors now largely in the rear-view mirror, were looking forward to a more stable marketplace going forward.

The average price of homes sold in July was $226,279. This was down four per cent from July 2009, when the average price shot to, what was at the time, the highest level ever. For the year-to-date, the average residential price was $228,947, up five per cent from the first seven months of 2009.

The dollar value of all home sales in July 2010 totalled $38.9 million, down 21 per cent from the same month in 2009.

Total sales activity in Brantford numbered 177 units in July 2010, falling 17 per cent on a year-over-year basis. The total value of all sales activity amounted to $41 million, 18 per cent below levels reported in July 2009.

Supply is already adjusting to softer demand. New residential listings on the Association's MLS System edged down one per cent from year-ago levels to 296 units in July. This was the first year-over-year decline since last October. There were 837 active residential listings on the Association's MLS System at the end of July, up two per cent from the same month in 2009.

There were 4.9 months of inventory at the end of July 2010, up from four months a year earlier. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

Brantford Real Estate Market Update

Resale housing market continues to soar in April

Home sales recorded through the MLS System of the Brantford Regional Real Estate Association remained very strong in April 2010, coming in just two sales below the record for the month set back in 2004.

According to statistics provided by the Association, residential sales totalled 231 units in April 2010, up 32 per cent from the same month in 2009. This stands less than one per cent below the peak for April sales reached in 2004.

April was another strong month for home sales, said Daniel Marchuk, President of the Brantford Regional Real Estate Association. It is likely that some future demand is being pulled forward right now by buyers motivated to finalize purchases in advance of interest rate hikes and the introduction of the HST.

The average price of home sales in April 2010 was $234,024, an increase of 11 per cent from a year earlier.

The dollar value of all home sales in April 2010 totalled $54.1 million, up 47 per cent from the same month in 2009.

Total sales activity in Brantford numbered 239 units in April 2010, climbing 32 per cent on a year-over-year basis. The total value of all sales activity amounted to $58.2 million, 47 per cent above levels reported in April 2009.

New residential listings on the Association's MLS System rose 15 per cent from year-ago levels to 373 units in April. Despite the rise in new listings, the overall supply of homes for sale on the market remains below last year's levels. Active residential listings on the Association's MLS System numbered 758 units at the end of April, 13 per cent below levels reported one year ago.

There were 3.3 months of inventory at the end of April 2010, the lowest level since August 2007. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The Brantford Regional Real Estate Association serves an area of Southwestern Ontario that includes the rural areas and communities in Brant County, which includes the City of Brantford, Town of Paris, Villages of Burford, Mount Pleasant, Oakland, Scotland and St. George.