Demand for luxury homes intensifies amid rising Canadian and global wealth

Improved financial standing among high net worth individuals is the major factor driving strong sales activity at the top end of Canadian housing markets, according to a report released by RE/MAX. Record or near-record activity reported in most major centres from coast-to-coast

RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada and RE/MAX of Western Canada examined 12 major centres from coast-to-coast and found that luxury sales have surged in close to two-thirds of housing markets between January 1 and April 30 of this year, compared to the same period in 2010. Leading in terms of percentage increases over the four-month period were Greater Vancouver (118 per cent)—where foreign investment has also played a major role—Ottawa (59 per cent), Calgary (51 per cent), Halifax-Dartmouth (27 per cent), Winnipeg (24 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (13 per cent) and Greater Toronto (nine per cent). Six of the seven major cities—with the exception of Calgary—are poised to set new records in top-end activity by year-end. Several are just short of peak levels reported in 2010, such as Victoria, Regina, and London-St. Thomas.

Three key factors—serious equity gains, stock market recovery, and improved economic performance—have been behind the push for luxury housing product across the country. The combination also continues to bolster the bottom line of high net worth individuals both nationally and globally. The impact of that wealth is being seen in the demand for all things luxury—from homes to cars, collectibles and fine wines.

While foreign investment has augmented sales activity in several Canadian markets, its influence was only significant in Greater Vancouver. The vast majority of regions reported that locals were the primary drivers of demand for luxury product. A number of factors position Canada as an attractive option, foremost that its real estate remains a bargain by international standards, given its ranking for quality of life, political and economic stability and the strength of its property laws. To those from abroad, it’s the perfect mix.

The strength of the upper-end segment continues to defy expectations. That demand remains largely domestic speaks to the solid underpinnings of the market, while underscoring the appeal of Canadian real estate on an international stage. Western Canada, in particular, will continue to see the upside benefit of investment from abroad.

The climbing wealth factor has played a role. The financial status and number of millionaires is rising once again—a fact supported by several recent studies released by notable institutions such as CapGemini/Merril Lynch, Citi Private Bank, Deloitte Centre for Financial Services, and Investor Economics—to name a few. While estimates vary, the studies concluded that the high net worth population in Canada and/or abroad—and its corresponding fortunes—is trending upward and will experience considerable expansion moving forward. Despite the impact of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, most millionaire portfolios/assets have improved or exceed pre-downturn levels. Of particular interest, residential real estate holdings have increased among high net worth individuals, as they express a clear preference for tangible assets. This trend is expected to continue, and serve to boost high-end residential real estate in months ahead, as the move to diversify assets continues in 2011.

As Canada’s millionaire club swells in size, inventory will play an increasing role in future, as the existing upper end housing stock struggles to keep pace with growing demand in central core areas, particularly in Canada’s gateway centres. Infill, renovation and new construction are helping to some extent—while driving up prices in tandem. The building activity is also serving to create new prime areas in areas that were once considered high-end peripherals, as well as in suburban communities.

Limited inventory levels in Canada’s largest markets have hampered sales activity to some extent in 2011, given that demand exceeds available supply. Multiple offers are occurring in both Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, as buyers compete for quality product in prime neighbourhoods.

to download the full report - copy and paste this link: http://bit.ly/lswazs

 

'Wild card' props up Canadian housing markets

over past decade

 

Inventory remains key to stability in 2011

 

 

Tighter inventory levels helped to make the last decade one of the healthiest periods on record for Canadian real estate, insulating markets in major centres from the peaks and valleys characteristic of past decades, according to a report released by RE/MAX.

 

The RE/MAX Housing Barometer Report measured monthly sales-to-new listings ratios in 18 major centres across the country from January 2000 to December 2010.  The report found strong seller's/balanced conditions prevailed for much of the time frame, prompting significant gains in housing values.   The lone exception was when the market dipped into buyer's territory during the latter half of 2008 and early 2009.  However, fewer listings served to offset diminished demand and provided greater stability.Average price increases from 2000 to 2010 ranged from an annually compounded rate of return of 4.82 per cent in London-St. Thomas to a high of 9.56 per cent in Regina. The national average was 6.82 per cent.  By far the tightest market in the nation was Winnipeg, where seller's ruled the roost for 85 per cent of the decade, followed by Hamilton-Burlington (67 per cent), Regina (63.6 per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo (59.8 per cent) and Edmonton (57.5 per cent).

 

Housing markets have been remarkably hearty over the past decade and the stage is set for a better than expected 2011.  Inventory has proven to be an effective form of market self-regulation, providing both an ideal climate for price escalation and a shelter in periods of softer home-buying activity.  As a number of city centres are already reporting stronger than usual activity out of the gate, it's clear supply will continue to be the wild card in 2011.

 

First-time buyers comprise the vast majority of purchasers, with move-upbuyers in close pursuit.  Demand and supply are on relatively even keel at present in most areas, but the traditionally busy spring season is expected tokeep the market at a perfect equilibrium in the days and months ahead.  However, there may be some exceptions to the rule.  The country's largest markets—Greater Toronto, Greater Montreal, and Greater Vancouver—are expected to head into the second quarter with fewer listings overall.  Two centres—Newfoundland & Labrador and Kelowna—are still firmly entrenched in buyer's markets.

 

An improved global economic picture, lower unemployment rates and rising consumer confidence levels have buoyed home buying activity since November.  While sales figures are expected to be slightly off 2010's heated pace, housing values are forecast to continue to climb in Canadian real estate markets in 2011—with most a direct result of lower listing levels.

 

Western Canada experienced some of the highest rates of return for real estate over the 11-year period.  While values in Regina posted the greatest percentage increase (9.56 per cent), Edmonton, (9.25 per cent), Saskatoon (9.2 per cent), Winnipeg (9.01 per cent), Kelowna (8.42 per cent), Greater Vancouver (7.8 per cent), Calgary (7.7 per cent) and Victoria (7.59 per cent) all outperformed the national average.  

 

Equally strong gains were posted in Quebec.  While solid balanced market conditions prevailed for much of the decade, housing values in Quebec City and Montreal rose 9.2 and 8.48 per cent respectively on an annually compounded basis.

 

Increases were more moderate in Ontario and Atlantic Canada—with the exception of Newfoundland & Labrador, where values escalated 8.14 per cent on average.  Ottawa led in terms of price appreciation in Ontario at 6.78 per cent, followed by Hamilton-Burlington at six per cent, Kitchener-Waterloo at 5.69 per cent, the Greater Toronto Area at 5.35 per cent, and London-St. Thomas at 4.82 per cent.  

 

There's no question that price growth has been solid over the past decade, but history tells us that exceptional growth supported by sound fundamentals is healthy.  Concern is only raised when the underpinnings are insufficient to justify the trajectory.  By all accounts, Canada's real estate market measures up to conventional wisdom and the faith in homeownership has not been misplaced.

 

While the statistics are impressive, they alone cannot tell the tale.  The gains realized over the past decade speak to the tremendous resiliency of the Canadian residential housing market.  Considering catastrophic events, both natural and manmade, that occurred throughout the period—SARS, forest fires, ice storms, 9/11, a recession—the performance of the real estate sectorproved that much more significant.  It remained a consistent bright spot supporting economic growth and ancillary spending, and subsequently helped lead the nation out of the greatest downturn in recent memory—its hardy nature heightening its appeal as a long-term investment.